Looks like Australia seems to have been abandoned by Chinese investors?

Is it really the truth?

Is the house price bullish or bearish?

Chinese investors have a new goal?

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1. Commercial real estate investment dropped sharply

According to new data, China’s total investment in Australian commercial real estate has dropped from A$6.97 billion in 2016 to A$2.83 billion in 2017.

Although Australia remains the seventh most popular destination for Chinese outbound investment and second in investment willingness, Chinese investment in Australia, especially from mainland China, is declining indeed.

According to real estate agents, more money is expected to come from Hong Kong over mainland China in the coming year. The sale of Dalian Wanda Group’s $ 2 billion Australian assets is a significant change. Although it is also a Chinese group, the latter has already set up its business in Australia.

It is estimated that as the regulatory regulations tighten, Chinese companies will have more joint ventures to continue their investment in Australia, similar to the acquisition of John Holland by China Communications Construction Corporation (CCCC) and the acquisition of Investa and Goodman by CIC.

The total investment for 2017 includes construction assets (mainly office buildings and retail properties) of 1.97 billion yuan, a decrease of 60% and a development cost of 853 million yuan for development land, amounting to 855 million U.S. dollars, representing a decrease of 72%.

In the fourth quarter of 2017, Cushman & Wakefield conducted an annual “Intention Survey of Outbound Investors in China” for Mainland’s leading overseas real estate investors in terms of their future overseas real estate investment intentions.

The results show that investment in mainland China has decreased, but Hong Kong’s investment has increased by 20%, from 818 million yuan in 2017 to 1.1 billion yuan. With mainland investors trying to redistribute capital through Hong Kong, Hong Kong’s investment figures are expected to increase further in 2018.

2. Real estate investment is falling steadily

One prominent prophet said Australia’s housing prices could fall by 50% in the coming and a global financial crisis, even worse than the global financial crisis and even the Great Depression of the 1920s.

US demographer and financial commentator Harry Dent correctly predicted the 2008 crash and warned that the “major political and social revolution that was brewing” and the American revolution in the late 1700s were very much similar.

He believes that the central bank will inflate as a result of large-scale banknote printing. The global real estate and stock market “bubble” will be broken in the next five years – but it is most likely to be somewhere between the end of 2018 and the beginning of 2020.

Terry Ryder, a property analyst, points out that almost every state / territory in Australia boarded the National Dirty Dozen list, with three each in Queensland and NSW Regional list.

Mr Ryder said the commonplace of these markets is that there has been a sharp decline in their real estate market transaction data, with high vacancy rates or, in many cases, declines in house prices.

In Victoria, Melbourne’s CBD market oversupply has made this a dangerous investment area. In addition, some suburb real estate markets in Melbourne, including Hawthorn and Hawthorn East, have experienced significant declines.

Is the Australian market really ready to Waterloo?

3. Down? Not! Luxury apartments are on the rise

Most apartments in the Australian apartment market have reportedly cooled, but developments in Melbourne and Sydney are still on the decline, luxury apartments are still at higher prices, especially in prime locations in downtown. According to real estate agents, FIRB received less than half the number of applications a year ago, but the average foreign bid for real estate in the eastern coastal areas has climbed from A $ 1.1 million to A $ 3 million about.

In fact, FIRB’s recent data shows that many of the approved foreign investments are related to real estate transactions. The total amount has increased from 19.2 billion in 2014-15 to 250 billion in 2015-16, of which China is the largest approved investment. Country of origin.

In Melbourne, Chinese real estate developer Landream is planning to develop 148 sets of Mandarin Oriental Hotel apartments at 600 Collins Street to complement the Mandarin Oriental luxury hotel it is developing. The 148 apartments, called Residences at Mandarin Oriental, provide residents with five-star hotel services and amenities. Lembongan Group has not announced the price of the apartment yet, but it has already attracted the attention of Chinese buyers.

Milton said that today’s Chinese buyers are more picky when buying houses, favoring more expensive, longer-term properties than average apartments.

4. Up or down? Positive and negative to pk

Many experts still hold the “Australian house prices will rise” point of view.

Although the law and order issue has been controversial over the past two years, Melbourne is still a very attractive city based on economic, cultural, medical and environmental considerations.

The government has also seen the potential of Melbourne. The latest document points out that Melbourne has been listed as a key city for city expansion, allowing more people to come in. Melbourne will introduce 2.8 million new residents before 2046! Can be called population explosion! The introduction of a large number of residents, the entire city will change accordingly. From now on, these changes are quietly coming.

2.8 million people have a place to live, therefore, the rise in housing demand is the main reason leading to prices continue to rise!

The Melbourne government decided to build a high-density apartment block from Sunshine to Box Hill. Within 3 years, Melbourne CBD will expand 13,500 new apartments.

Moreover, plans announced yesterday by the relevant departments revealed that the Melbourne CBD extends to North Melbourne, Footscray and Fishermans Bend. Infrastructure Australia, IA said the high-density strategy is the best way to stay livable. Currently, only 15% of Melbourne residents live in apartments, but IA calls for the construction of high-density homes within 15 minutes of the CBD.

The opposite view is that Australia will cut prices

One prominent prophet said Australia’s housing prices could fall by 50% in the coming and a global financial crisis, even worse than the global financial crisis and even the Great Depression of the 1920s.

US demographer and financial commentator Harry Dent correctly predicted the 2008 crash and warned that the “major political and social revolution that was brewing” and the American revolution in the late 1700s were very much similar.

He believes that the central bank will inflate as a result of large-scale banknote printing. The global real estate and stock market “bubble” will be broken in the next five years – but it is most likely to be somewhere between the end of 2018 and the beginning of 2020. I am talking about the second global crisis because we have never solved the first crisis. “He said.” Our debt has increased by 57 trillion and the value of real estate and stocks is overvalued. ” I see signs. Bitcoin finally collapsed, the U.S. stock market seems to be melting, and I think real estate will be the next one. ”

Dent is currently touring his new book Zero Hour in Australia, although he mistakenly predicted that home prices in Australia will plummet by 50% in 2014, but he believes this is real.

Dent’s critics satirized him as “just like a clock that stopped, he could do twice a day, but Dent’s attack on mainstream media experts who called him crazy, stupid and quack” was “nothing new”.

Dent has made a series of ominous projections for decades, and his latest forecasts include a 80% plunge in the stock market in the coming weeks, a 30% to 60% plunge in real estate prices and a 95% plunge in bitcoin.

Dent’s warning, similar to the economist John Adams, earlier this month identified 10 signs of the possibility of a “big recession,” including record home and global debt, and falling savings As well as the return on risk financial derivatives.

5. Xiaobian conclusion

In recent years, as overseas home ownership investment has become a new investment channel, the Australian real estate market has attracted countless overseas buyers with its safe and stable investment environment and attractive returns. However, since it is an investment, there is a certain Degree of risk, the other side of investment is to take risks, and cast cautious!